Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
