Several in Labour Want Starmer Gone. The Prime Minister Informs Me He'll Survive – and Britain's Economic Outlook Will Strengthen.
"I will remain in the same office by 2027," Starmer declared, adding that if our discussion was successful, he might invite us into Number 10 for a follow-up chat in 2026.
There is rarely ever time off for leaders. In the hour before our chat started, the PM had been on the phone with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to work out precisely had happened in Venezuela, where his big political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.
Once our interview, which was far more extended than typical, had ended, Maduro had been charged in New York.
Renewed Energy for the New Year
But as the year commences, the Prime Minister seems to have had a degree of a refresh. Maybe even just a little a rest with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.
That certainly seemed to have put him in better spirits than at the difficult conclusion of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.
But are he and his colleagues deluding themselves if they think his fortunes are set to turn around?
Party Concerns
The grisly truth for the prime minister is that a significant number of his party members are convinced he's not very good at his job. Several of them would sooner take a risk and oust him in 2026.
However Starmer was rejecting the idea when we spoke on Saturday morning.
On several occasions he insisted he'd be "judged at the general election", arguing nobody would take his term from him – even if the best chance of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 might be for Labour to change its leader.
"We are in the fight of our generation and I aim to be at the forefront," he declared.
Upcoming Local Votes
The problem for the prime minister is that he will be assessed well ahead of then – in a huge set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to argue, perhaps excessively, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.
Accurate – up to a point. But even though he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.
This did not stop Sir Keir suggesting that there were no scenario under which he would resign, should a his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, should those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.
Predicting a Turnaround
He sought to account for his unpopularity by saying the public was naturally impatient for things to improve. He aimed to persuade me, and the public, that the coming months would be distinct.
The economy would improve despite rising unemployment, he claimed, when plans the government enacted during their first turbulent year began to show results.
- He committed to empty asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, but he did not put a firm date on that.
- He noted too, with the caveat that it was not a certainty, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
- He revealed for the first time that Western allies were now talking about how to integrate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.
His core point is that in 2026 the country will "see an improvement".
Political Challenges
The PM may have communicated with greater vigour than observed from him for a some time – calmer, maybe, with more time to talk.
But despite facing pressure from within his own party for a bolder approach, with greater political vision, more urgency, more pace and more immediacy, his points were repeated ones.
Given that he is in such significant political peril, is a different approach required a change of tack?
No administration, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, gets everything its as desired.
Sir Keir's challenges are not just because government is hard, but because he and his colleagues have faltered, including in the recent past.
Regrets and Risks
The PM admitted that he was sorry for saying he was "happy" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an backlash when comments he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.
Starmer blamed "procedures" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.
And he is facing obvious political dangers as the year progresses. His alliance with the US president acquires a new complication after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.
Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the idea he would be at ease with such action seems far-fetched.
International Law and Brexit
He asserted he was a "longtime advocate of international law" but the public "simply lack the complete details at the moment".
Some demanded condemn it prior to we spoke. And the administration is likely to face more pressure to give an clear view in Parliament in the coming days.
There has also consistently been growing pressure in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the consequences of Brexit.
The PM disputes he's doing that, but his new specific commitment to move closer with the single market – the giant economic European market – will probably trigger protests that he is breaking his promise never to try to reverse the choices that followed Brexit.
A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will please some on his own side, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to